News

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has quietly been doing Quantitative Easing since February. The pace of accumulation has slowed in recent […]

Politicians consistently defend business regulation as a shield for consumers, but the airline, healthcare, and banking industries show how these rules actually protect incumbent firms from real competition. The result is a state-enforced cartel that limits market entry, keeps service quality at the regulatory floor rather than pushing it higher, and leaves consumers footing the […]

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July, based on a survey conducted between August 3rd and August 16th. The decline marks the second consecutive monthly drop, though the headline figure masks a sharper divergence beneath the surface. While consumers grew somewhat more upbeat about […]

Monetary inflation and technological revolution have combined to produce dangerous asset bubbles throughout history, from the precious-metal inflows and printing press of the Northern Renaissance to today’s digital-era boom in equities and speculative assets. The technology-driven productivity gains mask rising prices in goods markets, giving central banks cover to keep interest rates artificially low, fuel […]

Personal income climbed by $115.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in July 2026, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, rose by an even larger 0.5 percent. Yet consumer spending told a different story, inching up just 0.2 percent in nominal terms and less […]

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

International gold prices climbed 9% in the first two weeks of August, according to the World Gold Council’s latest India market update. Domestic Indian prices followed suit, gaining nearly 7% over the same period, though the rupee’s appreciation against the US dollar softened the impact for Indian buyers. The move marks a recovery from June’s […]

A very strong start to the week for gold, as you might expect, following the US strike on Venezuela / capture of President Maduro on Sunday.  What’s perhaps a little more surprising is the blistering outperformance of copper, silver, platinum, palladium…but to be fair global stock and oil markets aren’t bothered at all, and so […]

A very poor rest of the day for gold.  It got whacked back below the October high by algos at the S&P cash open, couldn’t benefit at all from silver’s +4% rally from 10amET into the COMEX close, and overreacted to the downside with a modest US yield uptick following a mixed set of FOMC […]

More strength than I expected for the precious metals overnight; thanks to more demand at the China open, but perhaps more importantly due to the Chinese government announcing subsidies for electronic vehicles, phones, tablets, smartwatches and smart glasses…all of which consume silver.  Past rounds of similar subsidies have led to immediate sales surges, and so we’re […]

An unsurprisingly challenging rest of the day for the precious metals.  We saw modest bounces with the stock market since the COMEX closes, but neither metal came anywhere close to re-attacking its overnight range.  This hints that there’s a lot of trapped bulls out there who fell for this bogus “bank failure / forced silver […]

Some absolutely wild post-Christmas trading activity for the precious metals.  First, silver and platinum’s incredible +10% rallies on Friday, fueled by an odd rehashing of the China silver export restriction story from October and rumors that a bullion bank was blown out of its silver short position; and now scary -16% & -18% crashes off […]

Indeed an upside breakout attempt for gold above yesterday’s highs in early Asian trade last night, but this technical achievement was ruined by an obnoxious 4k contract, -1%, bashing off session highs in the final five minutes of the 9pmET hour.  There wasn’t a headline catalyst or abrupt negative shift in the broader risk mood.  […]

An impressive rebound for gold & silver to round out this Tuesday, thanks in large part to a calming down in bond markets / strong stock market rally following the much weaker-than-expected Present Situation reading in the December US Consumer Confidence report.  Silver and PGM markets naturally outperformed amid the risk-on environment, with platinum astonishingly […]

More strength for the precious metals as expected overnight, with Asian demand once again leading the way.  Europe was hesitant to chase gold higher though, despite a pronounced decline for US yields and the USD…and this turned out to be the correct move in retrospect because yields and dollar are now shooting higher following the […]