World Gold Council: ETF Tsunami Lifts U.S. Gold Demand 58% 

Gold’s third-quarter scorecard shows a tale of two markets. Overall U.S. demand leapt 58% year-over-year to 186 metric tons, the largest Q3 tonnage in more than a decade. Yet traditional consumer demand—jewellery plus bar & coin—actually shrank by a third to just 32 t. The gap was filled almost entirely by institutional money flooding into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), hinting that big players are bracing for an uncertain monetary backdrop.

U.S.-listed gold ETFs vacuumed up 137 t in Q3—a 160% surge from a year earlier—hauling total holdings to 1,922 t, worth roughly $236 billion. Those inflows represented 62% of all global ETF buying and equaled about $16 billion in fresh capital. North American funds have now added $37 billion through September, already positioning 2025 to become their strongest calendar year on record. The four heavyweights—GLD, IAU, GLDM and IAUM—account for more than $33 billion of that haul, underscoring Wall Street’s renewed appetite for real assets while policymakers continue to tinker with fiat lifelines.

The flood of ETF interest has super-charged market liquidity. Average daily turnover on COMEX futures and options jumped 35% to $104 billion (915 t) in Q3, while ETF shares changed hands at a record-setting $5 billion per day, more than doubling last year’s pace. September alone yielded 13 fresh all-time highs and pushed U.S. trading to $138 billion per day; October raised the bar further to $208 billion—roughly one-third of global gold liquidity—despite an 8% late-month pullback. The London Bullion Market Association’s PM fix averaged a record $3,456.54/oz for the quarter, up 40% year-over-year, and briefly pierced $4,009/oz on Friday.

Wall Street strategists now openly chase higher targets: Bloomberg’s consensus projects a $4,000 average in Q4 and $4,500–$5,000 for 2026 before any cooling. Whether that proves too rosy hinges on the same forces driving today’s ETF binge—persistent inflation risk, record U.S. debt issuance, and a central bank caught between recession fears and a credibility gap.…