What Will Black Friday 2025 Tell Us About American Consumers?

Black Friday, the ultimate consumer holiday, has lost some of its luster in recent years as Americans become increasingly indebted, cash-strapped, and hamstrung by high inflation. Known as an all-out buying bonanza where shoppers flood retailers for deals on everything from TVs and toys to kitchen utensils, this year all signs point to a muted event with shoppers pumping the brakes to preserve their already-stressed bank accounts.

As a barometer of consumer sentiment, this year, Black Friday is expected to confirm what we already knew: Americans can no longer afford what they used to be able to, even with once-irresistible discounts on the biggest shopping day of the year. It’s affecting both lower and higher-earning households who are cash-strapped, with stagnant wages and increasing fear of a broader economic downturn.

A Deloitte survey of over one thousand consumers found that at incomes between $50,000 and $200,000, shoppers plan on spending significantly less this year (between 12% and 18% less, respectively). Shoppers in the middle, earning between $100,000 to $199,000, plan on spending only very slightly more — about 5%.

But spending cutbacks only tell one part of the story. Not only are Americans consuming less, but for what little they do spend, a majority are relying on financing their Black Friday purchases. Despite the discounted price tags, these shoppers are going deeper into debt to stretch payments out and conserve more money in their bank accounts for the short-term. And regardless of what CPI numbers say, the price of gold shows the real story of currency weakness.