What Do Gold Leasing Rates Say About Markets?

In 2025, gold leasing rates surged, partially from increased gold demand and tightening supply. That’s because confidence in gold is up, and confidence in the global economy is crashing.

Institutions like the “bullion banks” at JPMorgan and HSBC, and even central banks, lease their gold holdings, especially during times of duress. Gold leasing rates are an often-overlooked indicator when it comes to understanding sovereign debt stress and economic malaise.

Just as higher Treasury yields signal uncertainty because of higher risk for holding US debt, gold leasing rates are up because market confidence, especially in the US economy, is cratering.

Lessees provide gold to manufacturers, refiners, and even jewelers in exchange for a fee, paid in the form of a lease rate (usually an annualized percentage). Gold leasing is tied to the gold carry trade, where borrowers profit from the difference between lease rates paid to lease the gold and interest rates earned by investing the sale proceeds.