The Technicals: Recovering from 2011 PTSD

Editors Note

I typically write the Technical Analysis quarterly. I most recently analyzed the data last month; however, the gold and silver market has seen a year’s worth of activity in the last month. Thus, I thought it would be good to review again this month. Furthermore, as someone who lived through the last blow off top in 2011 and experienced a vicious 5-year bear market, I have been experiencing quite a bit of PTSD as prices climb higher and higher. As medicine, I have been reviewing all the data metrics I track to look for blind spots and determine if we are headed for another crash and burn.

I will warn you that my analysis below is a little lengthier than usual. As someone who witnessed 2011, I am doing this deep dive as much for me as you. TL;DR – we need to cool off, but there is no speculative bubble that is ready to pop

You have some market pundits like JP Morgan and Goldman calling for continued higher prices. Another segment thinks gold and silver have become the new meme stocks and are completely unhinged, ready to come crashing down. Elliot Wave folks are saying that we are near the top of a 10 year bull market, “maybe one more rally and then run for cover”. But Elliot Wave writers give themselves so many outs that they can pretty much claim they “called” anything.