The Myth of Aggregate Demand: What Really Causes Recessions

As warnings flash about the state of the economy, the Keynesians are out in full force to declare that falling aggregate demand is what causes recessions. The Austrian school can set the record straight.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

It is widely held that what causes recessions is a decline in the demand for goods and services. If the private sector fails to strengthen its demand, then the government should step in by raising its demand for goods and services. However, any individual’s ability to demand is constrained by their ability to produce goods valued by others. The more valued goods individuals produce, the more goods they can demand. According to James Mill,

When goods are carried to market what is wanted is somebody to buy. But to buy, one must have the wherewithal to pay. It is obviously therefore the collective means of payment which exist in the whole nation constitute the entire market of the nation. But wherein consist the collective means of payment of the whole nation? Do they not consist in its annual produce, in the annual revenue of the general mass of inhabitants? But if a nation’s power of purchasing is exactly measured by its annual produce, as it undoubtedly is; the more you increase the annual produce, the more by that very act you extend the national market, the power of purchasing and the actual purchases of the nation…. Thus, it appears that the demand of a nation is always equal to the produce of a nation. This indeed must be so; for what is the demand of a nation? The demand of a nation is exactly its power of purchasing. But what is its power of purchasing? The extent undoubtedly of its annual produce. The extent of its demand therefore and the extent of its supply are always exactly commensurate.

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