No, Inflation is not “Crushed”

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he has beaten inflation. His high spending “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with his desperate calls for expansionary monetary policy draw ire from anyone who understands the world from an Austrian perspective. However, he still has the audacity to claim that he has solved inflation, and we no longer need to worry about it. While official metrics of inflation are over 50% above the target, Trump is able to completely overlook the mismatch between reality and his vision of the world. However, one factor making this reality even scarier is the fact that the reported inflation is most likely far below real inflation, particularly in areas that are vitally important for regular citizens. There are three areas that can help us see this worrying trend, as case studies that can re-orient us towards the most basic applied problems, resulting from inflation. Rent, electricity, and groceries have all gone above the official inflation estimation in the last year, and they all put pressure of the daily constrained optimization problem of American households

While home prizes are coming down from a period of market manipulation, rent is a much more fluid measure of changing shelter costs. Even with structural barriers in place that prevent rapid rent change, it has still beaten the official inflation estimate. From August 2024 to August 2025, rent on average increased 3.5%. This is one of the greatest expenses for most households, so it would have an outsized benefit if rent inflation were cooled. For the median apartment, this price increase is near $800, which could easily eat up someone’s raise or any inflation-related salary increase, particularly for the poorest and society. The nominal increase in median weekly earnings over that same period was a little over 4%, but most of this went to those already well above subsistence. Inflation in rent is one of the most personal and divisive issues, and Trump may pay for this misstep in the polls. Of course, he cannot control all rent prices, but his expansionary instincts were key to this increase in price. Trump cannot tell anyone that inflation does not matter until he effectively slows rent increases. …