Money Supply Stalls Amid Weak Jobs and Rising Delinquencies

With recent economic data pointing to an uncertain economic future, M2, a primary measure of the money supply, shows a flattening in the supply of money. But, as more precise measures of money show us, this trend may indicate a latent recession in the dollar-fueled economy.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

The money supply has nearly flatlined in 2025, with July’s total money supply increasing by only $39 billion over the past seven months. The total size of the money supply still remains more than $5 trillion above its pre-covid total—an increase of 35 percent— but trends in delinquencies, employment, and home sales have put downward pressure on the money supply throughout much of 2025. 

As of July, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 2.45 percent. That’s down slightly from June’s year-over-year increase of 2.49 percent. Money supply growth is also up compared to July of last year when year-over-year growth was -0.43 percent. The money supply has now increased, year over year, for twelve months in a row, following a very volatile period of immense growth in the money supply—i.e., during 2020 and 2021—followed by eighteen months of sizable declines in the money supply during 2023 and 2024. Since then, however, money supply trends have largely flattened.