Gold & Silver Afternoon Update 10/7/2025 | The Bregar Minute
A very divergent rest of the day for the precious metals. Silver dropped -3% off session highs at its worst; first on the negative stock market reversal into the London close and then on the subsequent 0.40% S&P drop / 3% selloff for palladium into midday. Gold miraculously only fell 0.7% during this period, and couldn’t lure in more sellers after stopping out thousands of December futures positions below its COMEX opening range; and I wonder if the strong move lower in US rates across the curve had something to do with that. Aside from comments from well-known dove Miran, the rest of today’s Fed-speak wasn’t all that dovish…and so perhaps this was a legit flight-to-safety bid in response to the speed of the stock market selloff into noon ET.
Everything has since calmed down for stocks & palladium, but for no particular reason (just like the risk-off move during the morning had no clear catalyst). If we now consider the ability for the S&P futures to finish the day above yesterday’s lows, palladium’s finish back above the July 18 highs (defending today’s upside breakout), silver’s NY closing print back above the overnight lows, and gold’s NY closing print back above today’s COMEX closing range and yesterday’s highs…I think there’s room for another risk-on rally overnight that lifts everything.
Watch equity flows again out of Japan and Hong Kong tonight for directional clues because China remains on holiday. After that, we’ll get the latest RBNZ policy decision at 10pmET, where traders have priced in 70% odds of a 25bp cut, and 30% odds of -50bp…not normally a broader USD market-mover but you never know. Tomorrow’s calendar features a couple more Fed speeches during the 9amET hour and the FOMC Minutes at 2pmET.
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