Even After Three Strong Household Survey Reports, the YTD Number is Still Negative

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Current Trends

The jobs report showed a modest gain of 165k jobs in the month of October. Although this beat expectations (albeit very low expectations), it is still below what you would expect to see in a strong job market which is 200k+. It was surprising to see another strong Household Survey report of 463k jobs. This is the third month in a row where the Household Survey reported more than 400k jobs.

Figure: 1 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Monthly