Gold & Silver Afternoon Update 12/10/2025 | The Bregar Minute
A very volatile but ultimately strong rest of the day for gold and silver, thanks to Powell’s comment that recent average job growth of 40k per month is being overstated by 60k. In other words, we’re actually losing 20k jobs per month of late. It didn’t feel like he intended to say this, but this rare admission of the inherent flaws in the BLS labor data completely overshadowed a hawkish 2026 dot plot (just one more cut expected) and the Fed chairman’s numerous attempts to hit bonds with their new “wait and see” approach. Add to this the announcement of $40bln in new T-bill purchases over the next month, followed by “elevated buying for a few months” and global markets quickly got the message that Fed’s official position and Statement of Economic Projections is simply not believable. Money markets quickly defended at least 50bp of rate cuts for 2026, bond yields eased, the broader USD fell swiftly; and with that we’ve now seen gold break above yesterday’s high and silver squeak out yet another all-time high. While today’s upcoming NY closing prints look like they’ll be bullish for gold and silver, I think the bulls need to be on guard for the consolidation of the FOMC-move that we typically see overnight going into the Thursday following the meeting. Another pushback on Chinese yuan strength from the PBOC could be a catalyst for that tonight following today’s gains. Tomorrow morning’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims number should be the next big test for the markets overall. Expectations are for new claims to shoot back up to 220k after what many analysts referred to as Thanksgiving week distortions (under-filing) in last week’s claims number. If the bond and gold markets went into hawkish Fed-fear mode after that report, then it would make sense for them to keep recovering once the jobless claims data gets corrected upwards tomorrow.
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